Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus
Inlägg: 9735
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Russia incapable of general mobilisation, Finnish military expert says
Yle skrev:Pekka Toveri, former intelligence chief of Finland's Defense Command, says that the partial mobilisation is a sign of Russia's losing game and does not signal further concern.
En finsk expert tror inte att Ryssland har förmågan att mobilisera.

Försvarsutskottet blixtinkallas – kan skicka Archer till Ukraina
Dagens PS skrev:Försvarsutskottet i Sveriges riksdag blixtinkallas efter Vladimir Putins tal om mobilisering i Ryssland. Resultatet kan bli att Sverige skickar mer vapen till Ukraina, rapporterar TV4.

[...]

”Vi kan kanske avstå några Robotsystem 70 och Archer, en game changer, för Ukraina”, säger han.

[...]

På aktiemarknaden ledde Putins tal till en rusning för försvarsaktier. Svenska försvarskoncernen Saab stiger 6,7 procent (Vid 14.40). Mildef stiger 7,9 procent. Invisio är upp 4,3 procent.
Om inget annat så har Putin mobiliserat Europas försvarsaktier.

Michael Kofman om mobiliseringen:
Michael Kofman skrev:Mobilization comes with significant political risks and downsides for Moscow, but it could extend Russia's ability to sustain this war more so than alter the outcome. As always, these are just initial impressions and a very imperfect reading at best. 20/

Perhaps a useful addition - mobilization & stop-loss might help Moscow stem the deteriorating quantity of the force, but not the deteriorating quality of the force & its morale. Having used up its best equipment, officers, & personnel, I don't see how this can be recovered.
Rob Lee om mobiliseringen:
Rob Lee skrev:In the short-term, those two steps could be enough to prevent a collapse of Russian forces. Otherwise, Russia's manpower issues could have become catastrophic this winter when many short-term volunteers likely would not sign another contract. 4/

[...]

The other important short-term effect is that there are criminal penalties for soldiers who refuse to fight. Considering that this was 20-40% of soldiers in some units, that isn't insignificant. But an involuntary fighting force won't have great long-term prospects. 10/
Mark Hertling om mobiliseringen:
Mark Hertling skrev:Remember, RU soldiers get almost ALL training in units vs at basic.

How units are resourced play a big part.

One tank unit i visited near Moscow proudly told me they get 1 tank round/crew each year (US units spend hours in simulators & crews fire dozens of real rounds/year). 9/
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9735
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Russia decides to transfer paratroopers from Syria to Ukraine - General Staff
Ukrinform skrev:"Due to the unsuccessful covert mobilization effort, the military and political leadership of the Russian Federation made a decision to withdraw the units of the 217th Parachute Regiment from the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic and further prepare them for transfer to the territory of Ukraine," the statement reads.
Hur går det med mobiliseringen egentligen?

Vladimir Putin crony says Russia's new troops will be trained in just two weeks
Mirror skrev:And now, it has been revealed that the newly mobilised troops will only be given two weeks of training before being shipped off to the battlefield.

Gennady Zyuganov, a Member of the State Duma and former General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, gave the shocking announcement this afternoon.
Försöker Putin misslyckas medvetet?

Russia releases 10 foreigners captured in Ukraine after Saudi mediation, Riyadh says
Reuters skrev:Russia on Wednesday released 10 foreign prisoners of war captured in Ukraine following mediation by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi foreign ministry said.

The freed prisoners were American, British, Croatian, Moroccan and Swedish nationals, the ministry said in a statement, adding that a plane carrying the prisoners landed in the kingdom.
En oväntad medlare. Är relationen mellan Saudiarabien och västvärlden på väg att tina upp efter mordet på Khashoggi?

Failed Russian bridging attempt, reportedly somewhere in Kherson Oblast
BlueSauron skrev:A Russian MBT (T-62M?) can be seen abandoned.
Har en T-62:a hamnat i ett undervattensmuseum?

Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår nu till 6 309 enheter, varav 1 176 stridsvagnar. Som synes förlorade Ryssland idag två T-62:or i Cherson-området, vilket inte bådar gott för Rysslands uthållighet. Här är alla tresiffriga förluster:

1. BMP-2(K) (478 förluster)
2. KamAZ 6x6 (436 förluster)
3. Ural-4320 (416 förluster)
4. MT-LB (242 förluster)
5. BTR-82A(M) (238 förluster)
6. T-72B3 (185 förluster)
7. T-72B (173 förluster)
8. T-72B3 Obr. 2016 (156 förluster)
9. BMP-1(P) (155 förluster)
10. BMP-3 (139 förluster)
11. BMD-2 (134 förluster)
12. T-80BV (101 förluster)
13. MT-LBVM(K) (101 förluster)

Ännu mer anmärkningsvärt är att antalet fångade ryska stridsvagnar överstiger antalet förlorade ukrainska stridsvagnar, vilket tyder på att Ukrainas stridsvagnsflotta ständigt växer. Har detta någonsin hänt tidigare i ett storskaligt krig?
Senast redigerad av Enceladus den torsdag 22 september 2022 7:44, redigerad totalt 1 gånger.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9735
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

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Prisoner swap: 215 Azovstal defenders released from Russian captivity
Ukrinform skrev:Andriy Yermak said 200 Ukrainians were swapped for Vladimir Putin’s ally Viktor Medvedchuk, who has already provided all possible evidence to the inquiry.
Till skillnad från Stalin (se Jakov Dzjugasjvilis öde) tycks Putin alltså värdera bekanta mycket högre än krigsmän. Putin är nämligen gudfar till oligarken Medvedtjuks yngsta dotter. Inte undra på att stridsmoralen skiljer sig så mycket åt...

Russian Media Warns Anyone Who Protests Will Be Drafted Into the Military
Newsweek skrev:Russia has reportedly warned that those who protest Vladimir Putin's decision to call up reservists to fight in Ukraine will be drafted into the military.
Enligt sociala medier har vissa demonstranter redan fångats för att skickas till fronten, utan träning. Hur många av dessa kan tänkas desertera eller byta sida?

Den 20 september ökade EU:s gaslager med 0,21 procentenheter till 86,46 procent och Tysklands gaslager med 0,12 procentenheter till 90,41 procent. Ökningarna börjar sakta ner, men det är fortfarande gott om tid att nå alla uppsatta mål.
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dr Cassandra Nojdh
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Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Efter Putins och Rysslands upptrappning ansluter jag mig till Arkadij Babtjenkos uppfattning:
”Vi har ett europeiskt storkrig framför oss”

och då känns det inte meningsfullt eller ens möjligt att fortsätta kommentera här. Därför avslutar jag mitt engagemang i denna tråd. Enceladus får ta hand om eventuella putinister - vi har åtminstone en i detta Forum.
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9735
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: torsdag 22 september 2022 12:39 Efter Putins och Rysslands upptrappning ansluter jag mig till Arkadij Babtjenkos uppfattning:
”Vi har ett europeiskt storkrig framför oss”

och då känns det inte meningsfullt eller ens möjligt att fortsätta kommentera här. Därför avslutar jag mitt engagemang i denna tråd. Enceladus får ta hand om eventuella putinister - vi har åtminstone en i detta Forum.
Skribenten försökte ta ledigt från kriget redan i somras:
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: tisdag 05 juli 2022 10:32 Nu tänkte jag, till glädje för många kanske, ta sommarledigt från kriget i Ukraina (Ukrainas lidande folk kan tyvärr inte unna sig den lyxen). Kriget tar tyvärr inte sommarledigt, lika lite som covid19-pandemin trots att vi gärna vill tänka bort båda. Vi är trötta på pandemier och krig men pandemierna och kriget är tyvärr inte trötta på oss.
Så blev det uppenbarligen inte, men det kanske blir annorlunda denna gång. Rob Lee tvivlar dock på Rysslands förmåga att mobilisera:
Rob Lee skrev:This is an obvious point, but it is easier to mobilize before you've sustained heavy losses than afterwards. Particularly if you're fighting a war without clear goals and employing an unclear strategy to achieve those unclear goals.

I think Jack was right regarding the timing. As with everything in this war, Russia decision-making has focused on short-term solutions without a long-term understanding of how they could end this war on their terms. They now have fewer options.
Kanonföda gör inte ett storkrig. Putin behöver trolla fram ett ess ur rockärmen.
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: måndag 19 september 2022 9:28 Här är en analys om Israels position betr. Ukraina-kriget. Den är från april i år men i stort sett giltig ännu
Here’s Why Israel Isn’t Giving Military Aid To Ukraine

Även om relationerna mellan Ryssland och Israel är ansträngda så har Israel hittills i stort sett haft fria händer att angripa iranska militära mål i Syrien, medan Ryssland tittar åt ett annat håll. Det är värt mera. Ren realpolitik, alltså, eftersom Israel givetvis i första hand ser till sin egen säkerhet.
Skribenten har möjligen missat ett tidigare inlägg om att Israel skickar antidrönarsystem till Ukraina via Polen. Men samarbetet är tydligen djupare:

Scoop: Ukraine asks Israel to share intel on Iranian support to Russian military
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dr Cassandra Nojdh
Inlägg: 5903
Blev medlem: måndag 26 januari 2015 12:05

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus skrev: torsdag 22 september 2022 18:01
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: torsdag 22 september 2022 12:39 Efter Putins och Rysslands upptrappning ansluter jag mig till Arkadij Babtjenkos uppfattning:
”Vi har ett europeiskt storkrig framför oss”

och då känns det inte meningsfullt eller ens möjligt att fortsätta kommentera här. Därför avslutar jag mitt engagemang i denna tråd. Enceladus får ta hand om eventuella putinister - vi har åtminstone en i detta Forum.
Skribenten försökte ta ledigt från kriget redan i somras:
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: tisdag 05 juli 2022 10:32 Nu tänkte jag, till glädje för många kanske, ta sommarledigt från kriget i Ukraina (Ukrainas lidande folk kan tyvärr inte unna sig den lyxen). Kriget tar tyvärr inte sommarledigt, lika lite som covid19-pandemin trots att vi gärna vill tänka bort båda. Vi är trötta på pandemier och krig men pandemierna och kriget är tyvärr inte trötta på oss.
Så blev det uppenbarligen inte, men det kanske blir annorlunda denna gång. Rob Lee tvivlar dock på Rysslands förmåga att mobilisera:
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: måndag 19 september 2022 9:28 Här är en analys om Israels position betr. Ukraina-kriget. Den är från april i år men i stort sett giltig ännu
Here’s Why Israel Isn’t Giving Military Aid To Ukraine

Även om relationerna mellan Ryssland och Israel är ansträngda så har Israel hittills i stort sett haft fria händer att angripa iranska militära mål i Syrien, medan Ryssland tittar åt ett annat håll. Det är värt mera. Ren realpolitik, alltså, eftersom Israel givetvis i första hand ser till sin egen säkerhet.
Skribenten har möjligen missat ett tidigare inlägg om att Israel skickar antidrönarsystem till Ukraina via Polen. Men samarbetet är tydligen djupare:

Scoop: Ukraine asks Israel to share intel on Iranian support to Russian military
Ja, det där tarvar ett förtydligande. Jag försökte ta sommarledigt, men då kunde Enceladus-kollektivet inte avhålla sig från att upprepade gånger försöka sparka mig på smalbenet. Så inte heller denna gång, dessvärre, vilket inte tillför trådens ämne något men istället tyder på en viss småaktighet.

Ryktena om israeliska motvapen till UAV-er är intressanta, det finns massor av referenser till detta på olika nätsajter. De flesta gör samma översiktliga analys som 19fortyfive. Så Enceladus-kollektivet behöver inte bekymra sig över vad jag läser eller inte läser. I övrigt har jag ingenting att tillägga, varken nu eller senare.

Så Enceladus-kollektivet kunde ju förslagsvis inrikta sig på Ukraina istället.

PS. Det ser väl lite bättre ut att göra en radbrytning extra istället för att klumpa ihop mig med Rob Lee, eller hur?
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9735
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: torsdag 22 september 2022 18:10 Ryktena om israeliska motvapen till UAV-er är intressanta, det finns massor av referenser till detta på olika nätsajter. De flesta gör samma översiktliga analys som 19fortyfive. Så Enceladus-kollektivet behöver inte bekymra sig över vad jag läser eller inte läser. I övrigt har jag ingenting att tillägga, varken nu eller senare.
Ukrainian Air Force brings down 4 Russian suicide drones supplied by Iran
Ukrainska Pravda skrev:"Around 20:00 on 22 September, soldiers of the Odesa anti-aircraft missile brigade of the Air Force Comman Pivden (South) in Mykolaiv Oblast used two guided medium-range missiles to shoot down four Russian Shahed-136 suicide drones manufactured in Iran."
Ukraina har tydligen hittat ett sätt att neutralisera de iranska drönarna. Israel kan ha bidragit med kunskap om drönarna.

Ukraine's Air Force explains how to shoot down Iranian drones deployed by Russia
Ukrainska Pravda skrev:Ihnat explained that Shahed 136 is barely visible on radars; it’s a relatively small aerial target that flies mainly at a low altitude. It can be shot down with different air defence systems, or even small arms. But the best options in this case would be anti-aircraft guns or, for example, such air defence systems as Ukraine’s ZSU-23-4 Shylka or Germany’s Gepard.
Ovan anges möjliga motvapen.

Vidare fortsätter Ukrainas motoffensiv. Lyman omringas sannolikt inom två dygn. ISW bekräftar Ukrainas avancemang:
ISW skrev:Ukrainian forces likely continued attacks toward Lyman on September 22. Several Russian sources reported fighting to the northwest of Lyman and claimed that Ukrainian troops penetrated Russian defenses in Ridkodub and Karpivka, both 20km north of Lyman.[24] Russian sources also stated that Ukrainian forces broke through at Korovii Yar (22km northwest of Lyman) and are continuing attacks in Drobysheve (just west of Lyman).[25] The Ukrainian General Staff seemingly confirmed that Ukrainian troops have made additional advances north of Lyman and stated that Russian troops shelled Yatskivka (25km northwest of Lyman) and Korovii Yar, indicating that Russian forces are targeting newly captured Ukrainian positions in this area.[26]
Enceladus
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Russian Panic Spirals With Arson Attacks, Street Fights, and Manhunts
The Daily Beast skrev:The Kremlin wants you to know there’s absolutely no panic in Russia a day after Vladimir Putin called up hundreds of thousands to go fight in Ukraine—just ignore the burning military recruitment offices, protests shutting down highways, and college students being snatched from their classes to go kill or be killed.

[...]

The report, by Novaya Gazeta Europe, cited a source in the presidential administration who said the one redacted clause in Putin’s mobilization order contained a provision for up to 1 million people to be called up for service.

“The figure was changed several times, and in the end, they settled on a million,” the unnamed source said, adding that defense officials initially wanted to keep the whole document classified before deciding to keep only the seventh clause secret.
Putins mobilisering kan vara mer omfattande än vad som har medgivits. På flera håll har det varit stökigt. Studenter, demonstranter och även äldre blir inkallade till armén. Som väntat är minoriteter överrepresenterade. Carl Bildts dom är inte nådig:
Carl Bildt skrev:This is not the end of the beginning of this war. This is the beginning of the end of this regime in Russia.
Enceladus
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Russia Sets Out How Much It’s Going to Cut Gas Flow Through 2025
Bloomberg skrev:Annual pipeline gas exports are set to drop by almost 40% to 125.2 billion cubic meters in 2023-2025, according to the nation’s three-year draft plan, seen by Bloomberg. Pipeline gas exports is estimated at 142 billion cubic meters this year, the draft showed.

[...]

Based on the assumptions above and given annual supplies of some 30 billion cubic meters to former Soviet Union nations, about 45 billion cubic meters of gas could be delivered to the European market. That equates to some 123 million cubic meters per day. Russia currently exports to Europe some 80 million cubic meters per day.
Rysslands gasexport väntas nästan halveras under kommande år, trots att landet räknar med att sälja mer gas till Europa än nu.

Russian finance ministry seeks to hike oil and gas taxes
Reuters skrev:A new Russian draft budget will aim to draw in more funds from oil and gas producers while commodity prices are high, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Thursday, as part of efforts by the government to tackle its budget deficit.
När intäkterna minskar och utgifterna ökar behövs nya åtgärder. Men det går inte att beskatta något som inte säljs. Ökad gasexport till Europa är optimistiskt.

Putin Forces All Energy Workers To Register For Military Draft
Oilprice skrev:The Russian Energy Ministry has asked nearly 100% of Russia’s male energy sector employees to present themselves at recruitment offices, according to a Ministry letter shared by Gaz Bayushka.

Those receiving the letter, all companies in the country’s energy sector, as well as those in the mining sector, must adhere to the command. The companies must, according to the letter, give all men employed in the oil, gas, and mining sectors a day off to register at drafting offices.
Nu ska militären tydligen ta över energisektorn. Därmed övergår Ryssland till en krigsekonomi.

Russia’s military divided as Putin struggles to deal with Ukraine’s counteroffensive, US sources say
CNN skrev: Russian President Vladimir Putin is himself giving directions directly to generals in the field, two sources familiar with US and western intelligence said– a highly unusual management tactic in a modern military that these sources said hints at the dysfunctional command structure that has plagued Russia’s war from the beginning.

[...]

Already, there has been a reshuffling of military leadership in response to the battlefield failures – leaving Russia’s command structure even more jumbled than it was before, sources say. The commander who oversaw the majority of the units around the Kharkiv region had been in the post only 15 days and has now been relieved of duty, the NATO official said.
Putin detaljstyr sin armé. Vad kan gå fel? :roll:

How Putin’s partial mobilization could backfire
The Washington Post skrev:But newly mobilized soldiers are likely to be poorly trained, their prior combat experience a distant memory. A high death rate among officers in the Russian army, in part because of deliberate Ukrainian targeting, has left Putin’s military without sufficient trainers.

[...]

Nor does Russia have the equipment stocks to make good on its losses. Ancient tanks cannibalized from Soviet-era stockpiles are already on the front lines; in many cases, the tanks are far older than their operators. If the best equipped and trained Russian forces couldn’t seize Kyiv or hold Kharkiv, it isn’t clear why this second wave would fare any better.
Detta är verkligen på väg att bli århundradets största geopolitiska katastrof...
Enceladus
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‘These are not rental cars’: As Ukraine pleads for tanks, the West holds back
POLITICO skrev:“It’s a pretty high hurdle to get Ukraine not only U.S.-made tanks but the parts to maintain them,” said one U.S. official, who like others interviewed for this article spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss ongoing conversations. “You don’t want to give them something that’s going to break down and run out of gas and they can’t refuel them.”

[...]

Kyiv’s request for Western-style tanks predates the most recent counteroffensive and Russia’s withdrawal from much of eastern Ukraine. But in the last two weeks, senior U.S. officials have discussed with European allies, including Germany, the possibility of sending tanks to the fight, according to a senior U.S. official and an individual familiar with the matter.

“It’s top of their list now, it didn’t used to be,” said one congressional staffer familiar with the request. “They are trying to retake territory and tanks are helpful for doing that.”
Har den framgångsrika motoffensiven i Charkiv-området förändrat Ukrainas prioriteringar?

Vladimir Putin’s Speech – Scrutinised
RUSI skrev:So too, in this speech, there are potential alternative messages behind the threat of nuclear weapons. Given that this speech comes alongside the referendums, which aim to absorb the four Ukrainian territories into Russia’s, Putin appears to be delineating Russia’s territorial interests more narrowly, warding the West away from them. Referendums in these regions have been discussed for several months but the debate had died down of late, only to suddenly be resurrected again amid Ukraine’s recent counteroffensive. As Putin restated in his speech, the aims of the war are now to capture the Donbas region – significantly downgraded from the previously ambitious goal of regime change in Kyiv.

Changes on the battlefield and the difference that the latest conscripts will make will be factored into the Kremlin’s ultimate decision-making in the coming months. But from his speech today, there are suggestions that Putin may consider the four territories to be part of an acceptable win for Russia in Ukraine.
Problemet är bara att ett fredsavtal kräver mer än en part. Som bekant är territoriella eftergifter inte aktuella - detta gäller alla fem ockuperade regioner.

China stresses EU's strategic independence amid global turbulence
Global Times skrev:Wang noted that the situation in Ukraine shows a trend of expansion and long-term development, with negative spillover effects becoming more serious, which is something China does not want to see. The urgent task is to cease fire and end the fighting.

China will neither stand idly by nor add fuel to the fire, but will continue to play a role in its own way. Meanwhile, China supports the EU and major European countries in continuing their active mediation and making every effort to strive for peace.
Något kinesiskt stöd kan Putin i alla fall inte räkna med.

High Level Russian Intelligence Officers Are Getting Fed Up With Putin
Newsy skrev:Two sources familiar with U.S. intelligence say that senior officers in Russia’s intelligence community are getting fed up with their president.

There are indications that Putin’s critics there want to replace the former KGB officer with a current intelligence official, and a person may have been chosen, according to one source.
Närmar sig slutet för Putin?

Även Uzbekistan förstår vartåt det barkar:
NEXTA skrev:Local Telegram channels report that #Uzbekistan has stopped accepting the #Russian card payment system "Mir". This was confirmed by processing center UZCARD.

Earlier, these cards were rejected in #Turkey, #Kazakhstan, #Vietnam and #Armenia for fear of falling under sanctions.
Enceladus
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'War crimes' committed in Russia's war in Ukraine according to UN investigators
DW skrev:Commission chairman Mose also said they had found evidence of an unspecified number of Russian soldiers who had committed crimes of sexual or gender-based violence. Their victims' ages ranged from 4 to 82 years old.
Ryssland kan åtminstone inte anklagas för åldersdiskriminering.

Halt of Mir use deals blow to rising Putin-Erdogan cooperation
Al-Monitor skrev:The threat of Western sanctions has tripped up the recent uptick in Turkish-Russian economic cooperation, with two private Turkish banks halting the use of the Russian payment system Mir and three public banks under pressure to follow suit.

[...]

The risk of sanctions is expected to curb other economic activities as trade between Turkey and Russia comes under growing scrutiny. EU officials are reportedly concerned about the surge in Turkey’s trade with Russia and its potential to help Moscow substitute European imports and exports. According to some observers, Russian business people have come to use Turkey as a base for operations in Western countries, bringing in goods, especially from Europe, and then exporting them to Russia.
Dominobrickorna faller sakta men säkert...

De iranska drönarna har tydligen nått Odesa - och de är verkligen högljudda! Kan de massiva slöjprotesterna i Iran påverka landets engagemang i detta krig?

Ukraina verkar däremot ha fått stridsvagnsminor som kan avfyras från Mars/M270. Vidare fortsätter Ukraina att avancera i Donetsk oblast öster om Oskil.
Enceladus
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Russia to conscript 1.2 million people
Meduza skrev:Russian authorities plan to conscript 1.2 million people for their “partial mobilization,” Meduza has learned from a source close to one of the country’s federal ministries.

[...]

A source close to one of the country’s federal ministries noted that authorities “recommended keeping recruitments to a minimum” in regional capitals. Instead, the government is conscripting people “in rural areas, where there’s no media, no opposition, and more support [for the war],” said the source.
Putin verkar ha en ny strategi - etnisk rensning:
Kamil Galeev skrev:We don't have hard data yet, this mobilisation may include elements of ethnic cleansing
Den ryskockuperade ukrainska halvön går före:
aka Авушка skrev:80% of draft notices in Crimea went to Crimean Tatars. At the same time, Crimean Tatars, being the indigenous people and the ethnic minority make up less than 20% of the whole population of Crimea.
Här handlar det nämligen om kanonföda:
Mark Krutov skrev:A new batch of cold-war era T62-M tanks (MY1983) for newly mobilized Russian soldiers is on its way to Ukraine.
Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår nu till 6 371 enheter, varav 1 186 stridsvagnar. De moderna stridsvagnarna börjar uppenbarligen ta slut. Dessutom har Ryssland förlorat sin första iranska stridsdrönare, nämligen Mohajer-6.
Enceladus
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As Russian Losses Mount in Ukraine, Putin Gets More Involved in War Strategy
The New York Times skrev:President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has thrust himself more directly into strategic planning for the war in Ukraine in recent weeks, American officials said, including rejecting requests from his commanders on the ground that they be allowed to retreat from the vital southern city of Kherson.

A withdrawal from Kherson would allow the Russian military to pull back across the Dnipro River in an orderly way, preserving its equipment and saving the lives of soldiers.

But such a retreat would be another humiliating public acknowledgment of Mr. Putin’s failure in the war, and would hand a second major victory to Ukraine in one month. Kherson was the first major city to fall to the Russians in the initial invasion, and remains the only regional capital under Moscow’s control. Retaking it would be a major accomplishment for President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine.
Den som inte kan minnas sitt förflutna är dömd att upprepa det...

Why India Is Suddenly Buying Less Russian Crude
Oilprice skrev:India, which has been buying large volumes of Russian crude since the Russian invasion of Ukraine to take advantage of cheap oil, is set to slow purchases of Russian oil this month and look to more African and Middle Eastern supply as shipping rates on longer voyages have jumped.

[...]

However, with a recent surge in freight rates, Russian oil doesn't look so cheap. Moreover, the travel time from Russia's Far East, where the ESPO grade is loading for exports, is a month to India, compared to a week necessary for a Middle Eastern cargo to reach India.

In September, Indian refiners are not expected to buy any ESPO crude from Russia because of the higher shipping rates, industry sources told Reuters on Thursday.
Nu finns det ännu färre skäl för Indien att inte ta ställning till Putins invasion och dess ekonomiska konsekvenser.

Oil Falls Below $80 As Powell Warns A Recession May Be Looming
Oilprice skrev:Oil prices dipped by 5% early on Friday, with the U.S. benchmark slumping to the lowest level since January, on the back of heightened concerns about slowing economic growth and recessions looming.
Oljepriserna faller ytterligare - liksom Rysslands intäkter.

Russia’s Oil Exports Are Set To Plunge Next Year
Oilprice skrev:Nearly seven months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russian oil exports have been quite resilient and just 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) below pre-war levels.

But come December, Russian oil supply could plunge by more than one million bpd after the EU embargo on Russian oil imports by sea enters into force. In February, another one million bpd could then come offline due to the EU’s fuel embargo.
Därmed är Rysslands ekonomiska utsikter nattsvarta.

Russian Oil Flows Dive, Hurting Putin's War Chest
Bloomberg skrev:Russia’s seaborne crude exports have fallen sharply in the first half of September, hit first by a storm in the Pacific and then by an unexplained decline in shipments from the Baltic. Flows to the big Asian buyers — China and India — aren’t offsetting a drop in volumes for Europe.

[...]

If cargoes don’t rebound, the hit to the Kremlin’s revenues from lower volumes will soon be compounded by another drop in export duty rates, which are set to fall by 15% in October. That will take the per-barrel income to its lowest since February 2021, reflecting both lower international crude prices and a widening discount for Urals against Brent crude during the mid-August to mid-September period.

The headwinds for President Vladimir Putin are strengthening just as the US is pressing buyers of Russian oil to sign up to a price cap that would see purchasers granted access to insurance and other essential services only if the price paid is below a yet-to-be-determined threshold. While key customers China, India and Turkey are unlikely to endorse the plan, the price cap may boost their bargaining power over Russia for future purchases.
Det går inte att bygga ett imperium utan en ekonomi.
Användarens profilbild
Odd
Inlägg: 6463
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Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus skrev: lördag 24 september 2022 10:57 ...Det går inte att bygga ett imperium utan en ekonomi.
Jag tycker det är lite lustigt, i sammanhanget, att staten Sovjet ju faktiskt drevs som ett gigantiskt företag, men med en icke-fungerande affärsplan och omotiverade anställda.

Så, rent tekniskt skulle det väl kunna fungera (även om inget kommunistiskt land hittills faktiskt fungerar väl) om förutsättningarna var de rätta.
Genius on call
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9735
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Russia’s War Mobilization Is Pointless As Long As Its Army Lacks Trucks
Forbes skrev:Russian truck losses continued to mount as the war dragged on. Independent analysts have confirmed nearly 1,700 wrecked or captured trucks out of a prewar inventory of around 4,400.

Yes, the Kremlin has replaced some of those losses with a mix of civilian trucks and very old military models it pulled out of long-term storage. But there’s no disputing that the Russian army no longer has the same logistical capacity for a sustained offensive over great distance—not that that capacity was all that substantial to begin with.
Logistiken har länge varit Rysslands akilleshäl. Samtidigt fortsätter landet att förlora lastbilar varje dag. Den dåliga situationen kan alltså bli ännu värre.

The Russian Air Force Loses Up To Four Planes In One Day As Ukrainian Air-Defenses Advance
Forbes skrev:The Russian air force reportedly has had a very bad day. The Ukrainian defense ministry on Saturday claimed its forces shot down four Russian warplanes in 24 hours. An Su-34, two Su-30s and an Su-25.

Videos circulating online seem to confirm at least two of the shoot-downs. “Today is a good day,” the Ukrainian defense ministry tweeted.
Varje dag tycks vara en dålig dag för Ryssland.

Enligt Rybar håller ryska trupper på att omringas i Lyman, och även moralen sviktar:
WarMonitor skrev:Russian soldiers have recently sold several armoured vehicles to the Ukrainian army in Vyskopillya area.

The exchange reportedly happened earlier in the week without incidents.
Desto bättre är moralen i Ukraina:
Louise Callaghan skrev:Nataliya, a young woman we met at the checkpoint, told us that the men in her village had decided that if the Russians were stupid enough to mobilise them and give them guns, they'd turn them against the occupiers.
Enceladus
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Ukraine receives NASAMS from United States – Zelensky
Ukrinform skrev:At the same time, Zelensky stressed that “it's not even nearly enough to cover the civilian infrastructure, schools, hospitals, universities, homes of Ukrainians.” “We need the security in order to attract our Ukrainians to come back home. If it's safe, they will come, settle, work here and will pay taxes and then we won't have a deficit of $5 billion in our budget. So it will be a positive for everybody,” the president said.
Ukraina har äntligen fått luftvärnssystemet Nasams - men inte tillräckligt många system för att skydda hela landet.

Sources: FSB reports 260,000 men left Russia, wants to close borders
Novaya Gazeta Europe skrev:Discussions on closing the border for men of military age began in the Presidential Administration on Wednesday, 21 September, when law enforcement agents had started reporting the numbers of men leaving the country. According to our source, the last report by FSB from 25 September stated that 261,000 men had left Russia in the period from Wednesday to Saturday evening.

[...]

Nevertheless, “the mood in the Presidential Administration is that the law enforcement and the Ministry of Defence will be able to convince Putin to close the borders before it’s too late. This is how we currently approach the situation [in our work],” the source said.
Stänger Ryssland gränsen innan för många flyr?

The Russian economy will ‘die by winter’ because of the ‘catastrophic consequences’ of the military mobilization, a top Russian economist warns
Fortune skrev:Prior to Putin’s mobilization decree, Inozemtsev agreed with predictions that Russia’s GDP would drop around 4–5% this year. But now he believes that Russia’s GDP will drop that much in October alone, and the “next months will only consolidate the trend. Now my spring forecast for a 10% fall seems almost too optimistic,” he said.

[...]

Russia will also lose at minimum hundreds of thousands of men to the war’s frontline, and 3 to 4 million more will “disappear” from the labor market,” he wrote. In Russia’s wealthier cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg, residents generally have more resources to leave the country. But Inozemtsev predicts that army officers in the next few days will start serving recruitment papers at people’s workplaces, leading many to quit, or simply not show up at their offices, to avoid getting a summons.
Klockan tickar. Ukraina har alltjämt tiden på sin sida.

Poland says Baltic Pipe gas supplies may be double expected level in Q4
Reuters skrev:Poland should get double the amount of gas originally expected through the new Baltic Pipe from Norway in the fourth quarter thanks to work in Denmark being completed earlier than expected, a top Polish official was quoted as saying on Saturday.

[...]

Norway's Equinor (EQNR.OL) said on Friday it had entered into a 10-year agreement to sell natural gas to Poland's PGNiG (PGN.WA) in a deal covering a volume of 2.4 billion cubic metres per year, or around 15% of Polish annual consumption.
Den 25 september ökade EU:s gaslager med 0,31 procentenheter till 87,73 procent och Tysklands gaslager också med 0,31 procentenheter till 91,32 procent.
Enceladus
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Kyiv’s western allies boost nuclear deterrence after Putin’s threats
Financial Times skrev:The Russian president’s nuclear warnings are “a matter that we have to take deadly seriously”, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told CBS on Sunday.

[...]

“If he thinks the threat is going to intimidate Ukraine into capitulating or giving up 20 per cent of its territory, or intimidate the rest of us away from helping Ukraine, the opposite has happened,” one US senior official said.

[...]

Another official said: “There are a lot of red lines and they are probably not in the place where [Putin] says they are.”
Hur står det egentligen till med Rysslands kärnvapenstyrka? För några månader sedan dissekerade Perun den ryska propagandan utan omvägar:
Perun skrev:The Russian nuclear arsenal seems to be maintained through the power of black magic, at least on paper.
The End of MAD? The Nuclear Dimension of U.S. Primacy
Belfer Center skrev:For nearly half a century, the world’s most powerful nuclear-armed states have been locked in a condition of mutual assured destruction. Since the end of the Cold War, however, the nuclear balance has shifted dramatically. The U.S. nuclear arsenal has steadily improved; the Russian force has sharply eroded; and Chinese nuclear modernization has progressed at a glacial pace. As a result, the United States now stands on the verge of attaining nuclear primacy, meaning that it could conceivably disarm the long-range nuclear arsenals of Russia and China with a nuclear first strike. A simple nuclear exchange model demonstrates that the United States has a potent first-strike capability. The trajectory of nuclear developments suggests that the nuclear balance will continue to shift in favor of the United States in coming years. The rise of U.S. nuclear primacy has significant implications for relations among the world’s great powers, for U.S. foreign policy, and for international relations scholarship.
Har diskrepansen mellan USA och Ryssland blivit så stor att den militära doktrinen MAD inte längre gäller?

Vidare har ChrisO en intressant tråd om mobiliseringens demografiska konsekvenser för Ryssland. Moskvas tid som supermakt är onekligen förbi.

Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin admits founding Wagner mercenary group
The Guardian skrev:Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Russian businessman and a close ally of Vladimir Putin, has admitted that he founded the Wagner Group private military company in 2014, the first public confirmation of a link he has previously denied.

[...]

Wagner has been accused of committing human rights abuses in Ukraine, Syria, Libya, Central African Republic, Sudan and Mozambique. The group’s alleged co-founder, Dmitry Utkin, has been linked to the far right and is believed to have named the group after Hitler’s favourite composer. The US and EU have imposed sanctions on Prigozhin and Utkin for their role in Wagner.

[...]

While not directly confirming his involvement, Prigozhin has previously criticised those who opposed the recruitment of prisoners. “It is either private military contractors and prisoners [fighting in Ukraine] or your children – decide for yourself,” he said.
Rysslands nuvarande samhällsskick påminner alltmer om ett korthus som är på väg att falla.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9735
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

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Ukraine war: Protests in Russia's Dagestan region against new draft
BBC skrev:Elsewhere, a large group of women confronted an officer guarding a recruiting centre and angrily condemned the war in Ukraine, with one telling the officer that "Russia is on the territory of another country".

"Why are you taking our children," the women shouted. "Who was attacked? Russia was attacked? They didn't come to us. It was us attacking Ukraine. Russia has attacked Ukraine! Stop the war!"
Mammorna till inkallade ryssar verkar inte alls vara övertygade om att "befrielseuppdraget i Ukraina är en nödvändighet". Delrepubliker som Dagestan och Burjatien är som väntat värst drabbade:
Reuters skrev:"There’s nothing partial about the mobilisation in Buryatia," said Alexandra Garmazhapova, president of the Free Buryatia Foundation, an organisation that provides legal help to those mobilised. "They are taking everyone."
Här är en video som visar en rysk man som skjuter en militär befälhavare i ett värnpliktscenter.

Some 20,000 Hasidic pilgrims visit Ukraine’s Uman for Rosh Hashanah despite war
Ukrinform skrev:“We are not afraid. If we come to Rabbi Nachman, he will protect us for the whole year,” said Nahum Markowitz from Israel, who has been visiting the site since 1991.

He added that he is already familiar with the risk of war and the wail of sirens that comes from living in Israel.
Samtidigt samlas tiotusentals ultraortodoxa judar i den ukrainska staden Uman vid det judiska nyåret. Förhoppningsvis får dessa pilgrimer fira i fred.
Senast redigerad av Enceladus den onsdag 28 september 2022 17:19, redigerad totalt 1 gånger.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9735
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Mobilised Russian men sent to frontlines with no training, human rights project reports
Novaya Gazeta Europe skrev:Mobilised Russian men are being sent to the frontlines without a medical examination and without any training, the Pervy Otdel (which translates as Department One) human rights project reports, citing its sources.

[...]

“Hello everyone, this is the 1st tank regiment, we were officially told that we would receive no training before being sent to the frontline. The regiment’s commander confirmed this information. On 29 September, we’ll be sent to Kherson. So… think for yourselves, decide for yourselves what to do about this in the future. No shooting, no theoretical training — nothing,” the mobilised soldier says on video.
Ryssland skickar otränade soldater till fronten. Dessutom skickas lastbilar från 1960-talet. Vad kan gå fel? :roll:

Militärbloggaren Rybars senaste karta tyder på att Lyman har i stort sett omringats. Detta är sannolikt resultatet av Putins nya detaljstyrning.

Här är en intressant tråd om de iranska drönarna:
Justin Bronk skrev:Given interest in the Iranian Shahed-136 (and smaller Shahed-131) loitering munitions now being used at a rapidly increasing scale by Russia in Ukraine, and some of the breathless claims being made about them; a brief thread on what they can and can't do compared to jets (1/20)

[...]

The damage caused will be tragic and militarily inconvenient. However, Ukraine is united and winning despite whole cities ruined, and heavy barrages of cruise and ballistic missiles. Shahed-136s, even if hundreds get through, are highly unlikely to change the outcome. (15/20)
Drönarna tycks användas som missiler. Börjar de ryska missilerna äntligen ta slut?

Battlefield Hotlines Let U.S. Military Keep Ukraine’s Weapons Firing
WSJ skrev:A Ukrainian Himars operator said the ability to communicate in real time with American trainers had proven extremely helpful for quick troubleshooting in the field.

During a recent firing mission, the advanced weapon system’s computer displayed an error message that the Ukrainian didn’t know how to resolve. The army lieutenant initiated a video chat with a U.S. instructor, who then used Google Translate to send back instructions in Ukrainian.
Den konkurrerande översättningstjänsten Deepl Translate stödjer ukrainska sedan den 14 september. Detta kan förenkla kommunikationen ytterligare.
Enceladus
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Nord Stream: Ukraine accuses Russia of pipeline terror attack
BBC skrev:Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhaylo Podolyak said the damage to Nord Stream 1 and 2 was "an act of aggression" towards the EU.

[...]

"There is no doubt that these were explosions," said Bjorn Lund of Sweden's National Seismology Centre, as quoted by local media.

[...]

Denmark's Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen, said it was too early to come to conclusions, but that it was hard to imagine the multiple leaks could be a coincidence.
Försöker Putin omöjliggöra framtida gasexport till Europa för att förhindra ett maktskifte med en mer västvänlig regim? :shock:

Ukraine’s New Offensive Threatens Moscow’s Control of Lands It Seeks to Annex
WSJ skrev:The Ukrainian push here, east of the Oskil River, aims to encircle the strategic town of Lyman, where street battles have begun, and ultimately target the northern parts of the nearby Luhansk region. Russia is wrapping up sham referendums it is staging in Donetsk and Luhansk, collectively known as Donbas, and two occupied regions of southern Ukraine, aiming to formally incorporate them into Russia as soon as this week.

Demoralized by recent defeats in Kharkiv, Russian soldiers on this front line continue to retreat, despite arriving reinforcements. On Sunday, Ukrainian forces took several prisoners in a nearby village because many of the Russian soldiers were drunk, said a Ukrainian soldier. “The ones who were sober ran away, and the ones who were drunk didn’t even realize that the village was being attacked, and got caught,” he said.

[...]

“Many are still hiding in the woods, some with weapons, some without weapons. That’s why we have to be vigilant, especially at night,” said the commander. “Sometimes they come out to the road by themselves to surrender because they have no food, no water, no nothing.”
Motoffensiven fortsätter i nordöstra Ukraina. Det verkar bara vara en tidsfråga innan Lyman befrias. MilitaryLand.net bekräftar att Lyman har i princip omringats.

Turkish State Banks Set to Exit Russia’s Mir on US Warning
Bloomberg skrev:The lenders’ exit comes after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held a meeting with Treasury and Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati last week to discuss alternatives to Mir. Turkish state banks turning away from lucrative financial links with Russia following the US threat is one of the most dramatic examples to date of the power of US secondary sanctions to force countries, including those that have refused to join the primary restrictions, to fall into line.
Erdogan tvingas välja sida. Valet är uppenbart.

Russia Is Losing India: How Putin’s Ukraine Gambit Doomed a Long Partnership
Foreign Affairs skrev:In other important areas, however, great change is afoot. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Russia was India’s largest supplier of arms in the last decade. But from 2012 to 2021, the share of Russian weapons in India’s arsenal shrunk by nearly half. Over the years, India has been attempting to diversify its defense procurement, turning to alternate suppliers, including France and the United States. In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, New Delhi deferred its plans for more military purchases from Moscow, including a deal for 21 new MiG-29 fighter jets for the Indian Air Force. Indian officials claimed to have made the move to support domestic production, but the country is clearly slowing its rate of arms purchases from Russia. The protracted nature of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has also raised concerns in New Delhi about Russia’s military production capabilities. In particular, India worries that Russia won’t be able to follow through on scheduled deliveries of new hardware and spare parts for older equipment, especially in emergency situations.

[...]

One crucial area where Russia was useful to India was at the UN Security Council, where it often assisted India in opposing the adoption of sanctions or other resolutions. But many analysts and former policymakers in New Delhi today think that France or even the United States could help India pursue its interests at the Security Council. Furthermore, India could grow concerned that China may influence a weakened Russia’s votes on the Security Council. China and Russia are closer than ever, and it is only a matter of time before China begins exerting some influence on the independence of a war-fatigued Russia’s foreign policy. If skirmishes between Indian and Chinese forces recur in the Himalayan borderlands, for instance, China could put pressure on Russia to stop providing diplomatic backing or arms and ammunition to India.
Kan Frankrike ersätta den roll som Ryssland tidigare hade för Indien?
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