Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus
Inlägg: 9734
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: måndag 15 augusti 2022 17:43 Påståendena om en ukrainsk UAV-attack på rysk mark verkar inte härstamma från någon officiell ukrainsk källa. De enda UAV-system som skulle kunna genomföra sådana attacker är väl amerikanska?!
Det finns spekulationer om att Belgorods och Rostovs "separatiströrelser" köper UAV-system på kinesiska Alibaba:
Enceladus skrev: torsdag 23 juni 2022 11:05
Enceladus skrev: onsdag 22 juni 2022 12:21 Rostovs separatiströrelse har tydligen bombat ett raffinaderi i sin kamp för självständighet från Ryssland. Varifrån separatiströrelsen får sina vapen är ett mysterium. :lol:
‘Kamikaze’ Drones Strike Russian Oil Refinery, Looks Like Model Sold On Alibaba

Denna artikel har mer information om attacken på det ryska raffinaderiet. En intressant analys av drönares unika möjligheter i modern krigföring.
Ukraina tar naturligtvis inget ansvar för dessa separatiströrelser. Detta är ju en intern angelägenhet för Ryssland. :lol:

Putins vän rekryterar fångar till kriget
DN skrev:På grund av stora förluster i manskap och usel stridsvilja lider Ryssland svår brist på soldater att sätta in i kriget mot Ukraina. Därför rekryterar den ryska privatarmén Wagnergruppen våldsbrottslingar till kriget. En förebild är straffbataljonen SS-kommando Dirlewanger som stred för Nazi-Tyskland.

[...]

Att affärsmannen Prigozjin, som har kallats för ”Putins kock”, personligen reser runt i Ryssland för att rekrytera nya soldater tyder på en viss desperation. Men det blir begripligt mot bakgrund av hur kraftigt den ryska armén under snart sex månaders krig har decimerats. Enligt ukrainska uppgifter har 42 000 ryska soldater dödats eller oskadliggjorts sedan den 24 februari, medan USA:s försvarsdepartement Pentagon sätter siffran ännu högre – omkring 80 000.

[...]

Det är mer än bara namnen ”Wagner” och ”Dirlewanger” - och att båda enheterna betraktas som skoningslösa och brutala – som får dem att likna varandra. Båda brigaderna skapades av brottsdömda män.
Enligt uppgift är det Wagnergruppen som ligger bakom mordet på ett femtiotal ukrainska krigsfångar. Detta skulle inte vara Wagnergruppens första krigsbrott.

Putin rewards his old ally Viktor Orban with extra supplies of natural gas
The Times skrev:While states such as Germany and Austria fret about a winter energy crisis, Hungary is to receive 700 million cubic metres of Russian natural gas on top of the amount in its contracts.

[...]

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February Orban has repeatedly put a brake on European Union sanctions and called for peace negotiations between Moscow and Washington.

[...]

Many refugees deported by Russia from the territories it has occupied in Ukraine later try to cross into Europe, often through the Baltic states. Nearly 22,000 war refugees from Ukraine have travelled from Russia to Estonia through the border city of Narva, Estonian media say.
Ungern leker med elden. Landets ekonomi är helt beroende av EU. Däremot är det glädjande att deporterade ukrainare lyckas fly från Ryssland.

47 of the world’s 200 biggest companies still haven’t left Russia. Now the Kremlin is preparing ‘expropriation blackmail,’ an expert says
Fortune skrev:If it was once a difficult decision for companies to stay in Russia or leave, it could get a lot easier if Putin decides for them.

[...]

Approximately 47 of the world’s 200 biggest global firms operating in Russia right now are at high risk of their Russian holdings becoming expropriated or nationalized, because of the amount of their investments in the country or current stakes in Russian business, according to the Moral Rating Agency report.

[...]

Jeffrey Sonnenfeld is a professor of management and senior associate dean for leadership studies, who is leading Yale’s research on companies that have left Russia. He told Fortune that Putin’s recent nationalization highlights the Kremlin’s desparation now that Russia has become an “uninvestable nation.” In a recent paper, Sonnenfeld’s teams highlights the financial incentives companies have for leaving.

“There is no incentive to remain,” he says. The companies stand to lose “operational control, staffing control, brand control, and reputational control.”
Putin tycks vara fast besluten att förgöra Rysslands renommé, i den mån Ryssland hade något.
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dr Cassandra Nojdh
Inlägg: 5903
Blev medlem: måndag 26 januari 2015 12:05

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av dr Cassandra Nojdh »

Enceladus skrev: tisdag 16 augusti 2022 13:36
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: måndag 15 augusti 2022 17:43 Påståendena om en ukrainsk UAV-attack på rysk mark verkar inte härstamma från någon officiell ukrainsk källa. De enda UAV-system som skulle kunna genomföra sådana attacker är väl amerikanska?!
Det finns spekulationer om att Belgorods och Rostovs "separatiströrelser" köper UAV-system på kinesiska Alibaba:
Enceladus skrev: torsdag 23 juni 2022 11:05
Enceladus skrev: onsdag 22 juni 2022 12:21 Rostovs separatiströrelse har tydligen bombat ett raffinaderi i sin kamp för självständighet från Ryssland. Varifrån separatiströrelsen får sina vapen är ett mysterium. :lol:
‘Kamikaze’ Drones Strike Russian Oil Refinery, Looks Like Model Sold On Alibaba

Denna artikel har mer information om attacken på det ryska raffinaderiet. En intressant analys av drönares unika möjligheter i modern krigföring.
Ukraina tar naturligtvis inget ansvar för dessa separatiströrelser. Detta är ju en intern angelägenhet för Ryssland. :lol:
Det är ju omöjligt att avgöra vad dessa attacker representerar. Att Ukraina - i förekommande fall - skulle använd amerikanska UAV-er (Switchblade) anser jag vara uteslutet. Men kommersiellt tillgängliga UAV-er har ju bevisligen adapterats som vapen tidigare. Små UAV-er (ofta, men inte alltid av helikoptertyp) kan inte bära någon större last varför det oftast verkar som om de bär någon form av antipersonellt (splitter) vapen. Större UAV-er kan naturligtvis bara tyngre laster. Sådana UAV-er är ofta av fixed-wing-typ: https://www.aeroexpo.online/aeronautic- ... v-520.html

PS. Switchblade-UAV-erna (300 och 600, som Ukraina bevisligen fått) är i första hand antipansar-vapen. Typ 300 har en stridsladdning motsvarande en 40 mm granat, medan den större typ 600 i princip har samma stridsladdning som pansarvärnsmissilen Javelin.
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9734
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

Putin’s Next Miscalculation: Russia’s Readiness for a Long War
Jamestown skrev:Germany remains the main target of Russian gas pressure and political maneuvering, but Putin’s understanding of this major European power is badly out of date, as Berlin’s resolve to stand with Ukraine against cruel aggression has been seriously underestimated in Moscow (Kommersant FM, August 11). Russian diplomacy aims at weakening this resolve by feigning readiness for peace talks and had expected the grain deal negotiated by Turkey to restore the Kremlin’s trustworthiness, but provocations at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant produce far more convincing evidence to the contrary (Svoboda.org, August 12).

[...]

Publication of official statistics has been severely curtailed, but one bit of data that was observed last week covered the large expansion of the state budget deficit caused by a sharp decline in income, even from the oil-and-gas sector, and a massive increase in state expenditures, clearly caused by the war, which have been duly hidden (Rbc.ru, August 12; Bfm.ru, August 12).

[...]

Time, however, is not on the Russian premier’s side, and Ukraine is set to prove it, despite the terrible price it pays for resisting and rolling back Russian aggression.
Ryssland tycks inte vara redo för ett långvarigt krig. Nu gäller det för Europa att ha is i magen och för Ukraina att härda ut. Europas gasreserver passerade nyligen 75 procent, väsentligt tidigare än planerat. Segern är inom räckhåll.

Russia’s Repeat Failures: Moscow’s New Strategy in Ukraine Is Just as Bad as the Old One
Foreign Affairs skrev:The Ukrainian and Russian militaries are entering a critical period in the weeks and months ahead, although for different reasons. In some areas, Ukrainian forces are outgunned, outranged, and in critical need of ammunition and certain weapons—thanks in part to Russia’s efforts to disable Ukraine’s defense industry. But in the near term, Ukraine may have a more sustainable position. The country has sufficient personnel, Western support, and a strong will to fight. Russia, meanwhile, has experienced troop and material losses that will be difficult to overcome.

[...]

Russian military planners closely study whether their forces are combat effective, including by looking at attrition rates (also known as “critical loss” in Russian military science). For Russian ground forces, military planners projected before the war that a unit becomes ineffective when it loses 50 to 60 percent of its original strength. They estimate that a regional command-and-control network is permanently broken when 40 percent of its equipment is destroyed. They believe that an air force squadron can no longer operate when it loses 70 percent of its aircraft. If Ukraine can create a highly contested frontline—just as it did outside Kyiv and Kharkiv—with attacks on command-and-control points, high rates of equipment losses, and large Russian casualties, it may again convince Moscow to withdraw.
Putin har ingen chans att vinna ett utnötningskrig mot världshistoriens starkaste militärallians, oavsett hur många pariastater Ryssland har på sin sida.

One-way ticket: Pavel Luzin on why Russia’s military capabilities have suffered irreparable losses after four months of war
Pavel Luzin skrev:Meanwhile, the entire 2022 federal budget amounts to about RUB 26 trillion. For comparison, in 2021 nearly RUB 3.6 trillion was spent on national defence (the entire budget was RUB 24.8 trillion), but the bar of RUB 1.5 trillion was crossed as late as June. If the pace of spending seen in March-April is maintained — RUB 500 billion a month instead of an average of RUB 300 billion a month — by the end of the year spending on national defence may well reach RUB 5.0−5.5 trillion, or 19%-21% of the federal budget.

[...]

In addition, in war conditions the natural life cycle of AFVs is reduced even if they are not damaged in combat. For example, the service life of the V-84 and V-92 engines and their variations installed on the T-72B3 and T-72B3M does not exceed 1,000 hours before overhaul. Taking this and the inevitable breakdown of other equipment into account, it is safe to assume that most Russian tanks involved in the current war will require an overhaul by the end of 2022 in a manufacturing facility rather than in the field.

[...]

Therefore, after four months of war, it would take a minimum of 4 years to restore Russia’s armoured vehicle capacity to early 2022 levels, even with conservative estimates of combat losses. If the war continues, by the end of the year it will take 7−10 years of plant operations (and that’s leaving aside the effect of the embargo on industrial equipment and components, which can be estimated later).

[...]

Thus, in total, Russia can manufacture no more than 225 cruise and tactical ballistic missiles a year (not including the Kh-35 missiles). And at the current rate of production, it needs at least 10 years to make up for the losses.
Kan detta vara slutet för Ryssland som militär supermakt? Antalet visuellt bekräftade ryska förluster uppgår nu till 5 207 enheter, varav 955 stridsvagnar. Vidare blir lejonparten av den utrustning som används i kriget förbrukad, även om allt inte förloras i strid.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9734
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

War in Ukraine Has Sparked a New Race to Succeed Putin
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace skrev:Former president, ex-prime minister, and deputy chair of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev has been particularly busy making statements. His over-the-top, hardline comments on foreign policy issues and insults hurled at Western leaders often look comical, but the role he’s trying to play is clear. It blends tough isolationism with populism, firmly placing the blame for internal woes on the shoulders of external enemies.

[...]

Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, both regarded as contenders for Putin’s succession prior to the war, have been notably tight-lipped about the “special operation” in Ukraine. Sobyanin toed the line by appearing at a rally in support of it at Moscow’s Luzhniki stadium in March, and traveled to the LNR in June, but he has yet to be spotted in army fatigues or to call for Nazism to be crushed. Mishustin, meanwhile, has avoided the subject of the war entirely.

The rational explanation for their silence is that war is a temporary affair, and relations with the West and even with Ukraine will, at some point and somehow, have to be restored. When that time comes, those who haven’t insulted “hostile countries” or directly participated in the military campaign will be better placed to go about that.

[...]

The two strategies—loud gestures and resounding silence—reflect the different approaches and assumptions of those who use them. The hawks operate on the basis that the successor will be chosen by Putin, so they mimic his behavior in their attempts to win his favor, indicating that they will preserve his legacy loyally. “After Putin there will be Putin,” Volodin once said.
Den ryska eliten börjar förbereda sig för ett Ryssland med någon annan vid makten. Två tydliga fraktioner har bildats. Det återstår att se vilken som får makten.

Den amerikanska tankesmedjan har publicerat en annan artikel på samma tema:

Has War Made Putin a Burden for Russia’s Elites?
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace skrev:That doesn’t yet mean that the foundations for a hypothetical coup are forming within the Russian elite, or that anyone from Putin’s entourage will be prepared to make a stand against the president. The chances of that happening are extremely low, because those same feelings of futility and despondency go hand in hand with a state of political paralysis: even if someone has their own interests and an alternative view of the situation (whether in favor of peace or more warlike), they remain politically impotent because any mechanisms for taking political action have been destroyed.

The Russian elite is atomized. Every individual is frightened for their future, and lives in permanent fear of being denounced. Putin’s function as an arbitrator is diminishing, but he remains the only “guarantor of stability”—even though any stability is long gone—purely because no other mechanisms for resolving inter-elite conflicts in Russia have emerged.

The siloviki, or security services, fear revenge by the liberals; the technocrats fear a tidal wave of repression; and big business fears the re-Sovietization of the economy. Many people still believe that only Putin can protect them from those risks. His value in this respect is not even as a physical figure, but as a selection of ideologies that make it possible to stitch the system into something whole, avoiding social unrest or ruinous internal divides.

[...]

And yet the degradation of Putin’s political leadership means that the Russian elite will have to change. The president’s misjudgment of the risks to Russian industry, banking, and energy, and incompetence in financial and economic affairs multiplied by a lack of trust in those around him and in experts will lead to belated and unsound decisions.
Budskapet är i stort sett detsamma. Den ryska eliten behöver förbereda sig för ett Ryssland utan Putin vid makten.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9734
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

Russian Military Installations In Crimea Explode
The War Zone skrev:The latest incidents come exactly a week after mysterious explosions destroyed several aircraft at the Saki Air Base on Crimea.

[...]

Shortly after 6 a.m. local time, explosions rocked an ammunition dump at a military unit in the Dzhankoi region in the north of Crimea, apparently damaging key railroad tracks and an electrical substation, Russian media outlets reported. The area is about 30 miles from occupied Kherson and is an important railhead for Russian supplies.

[...]

As a result, speculation has run rampant about what has been used in these attacks, running from smaller, locally operated, armed drones, to special operations sabotage raids like the ones carried about by the Shaman Battalion - which we profiled here - to the possibility that Ukraine has secretly fielded its own ballistic missile system. Ukrainian forces, or those loyal to Ukraine, have used small drones in a high-profile attack in Crimea against the Black Sea Fleet headquarters before all this started, at the time we said this was just a harbinger of things to come. Ukraine also possesses an off-the-shelf long-range precision drone attack capability that could be the culprit here. We just don't know.
Nya explosioner på den ockuperade halvön. The War Zone har återigen en utförlig artikel om incidenterna. Det är emellertid alltjämt oklart hur attackerna har utförts och vem som utförde dem.
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: tisdag 16 augusti 2022 19:46 Det är ju omöjligt att avgöra vad dessa attacker representerar. Att Ukraina - i förekommande fall - skulle använd amerikanska UAV-er (Switchblade) anser jag vara uteslutet. Men kommersiellt tillgängliga UAV-er har ju bevisligen adapterats som vapen tidigare. Små UAV-er (ofta, men inte alltid av helikoptertyp) kan inte bära någon större last varför det oftast verkar som om de bär någon form av antipersonellt (splitter) vapen. Större UAV-er kan naturligtvis bara tyngre laster. Sådana UAV-er är ofta av fixed-wing-typ: https://www.aeroexpo.online/aeronautic- ... v-520.html

PS. Switchblade-UAV-erna (300 och 600, som Ukraina bevisligen fått) är i första hand antipansar-vapen. Typ 300 har en stridsladdning motsvarande en 40 mm granat, medan den större typ 600 i princip har samma stridsladdning som pansarvärnsmissilen Javelin.
Ukraina har även fått den mystiska drönaren Phoenix Ghost av USA. Polen har också levererat kamikazedrönaren Warmate, vilken har används tidigare. Vidare har Polen - till skillnad från USA - förmodligen inget emot att "provocera Putin" på rysk mark...
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9734
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

Även Taiwan verkar ha skickat stridsdrönare till Ukraina (officiellt såldes dessa till Polen):
The War Zone skrev:Taiwan knows well what it is like to take on a bigger adversary, as we pointed out in our coverage of China's military reaction to visits there by U.S. lawmakers.

Well, now it appears Taiwanese-made drones that have a rotary magazine of bomblets made their way to Ukraine via Poland.
Ovanstående artikel har en rad andra intressanta inslag om kriget i Ukraina:
The War Zone skrev:Hostomel was the home of the Antonov An-225, known as Mriya, the world's largest cargo plane, which would be destroyed in the attack. We profiled the plane and its first pilot here.

The Post said its work "shines new light on the uphill climb to restore U.S. credibility, the attempt to balance secrecy around intelligence with the need to persuade others of its truth, and the challenge of determining how the world’s most powerful military alliance would help a less-than-perfect democracy on Russia’s border defy an attack without NATO firing a shot."

[...]

“The Wagner Russian mercenaries, who ran the “Grey Zone” Telegram channel, with 268,000 followers, have no updates since August 13,” he reported. “My friend, Ukrainian journalist Denis Kazansky, reports that it’s probable that it’s editors were wiped out during the HIMARS strike on Popasna.”
På tal om produkter på Alibaba med militära användningsområden:

Russia’s Rocket-Toting Robot Dog Is Chinese, For Sale On Alibaba
The War Zone skrev:A ‘robot dog’ armed with an anti-tank rocket launcher installed on its back was shown off today at Russia’s “Army 2022” arms expo. While this was intended to show off Russia's state of technology among its peers, the strangely shrouded robotic dog appears to be a Chinese type that is available for purchase for a few grand on Alibaba's Aliexpress.com – a similar example of which emerged recently online armed with a submachine gun.
Är detta framtiden för den ryska militären? :lol:

Ukraine Situation Report: Bridge Busting Campaign Persists In Kherson
The War Zone skrev:The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also confirms the latest attack has now left all three bridges leading into the Kherson region inoperable. This achievement could give Ukrainian forces the upper hand in their revitalized counteroffensive nearby.

[...]

This reality has made it so that Russian forces have had to rely on a number of pontoon ferries to transport personnel, equipment, and civilians across the Dnieper River in an attempt to maintain the flow of supplies.
Slutligen några nya bilder på broarna i Cherson-området. Den ryska militärledningen har som bekant redan lämnat det sjunkande skeppet, men tiotusentals soldater och mycket utrustning är kvar - förmodligen för gott. :?
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9734
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

Russian Military Reported is Preparing for a Massive Missile Attack from Belarus
International Military skrev:An independent military intelligence group says Russia is gathering anti-aircraft missile systems in Belarus in preparation for what it says is a large-scale attack on Ukraine.

[...]

Belarusian Hajun said in his post that Ziabrovka airfield contains 10 to 14 S-400 Triumph and two Pantsir air defense systems, as well as three KASTA-2E2 and 48Y6 Podlyot radars. In addition, it is said that the airfield is used to store at least 15 to 60 missiles for the Triumph defense system, with more expected to be delivered by the Russian Air Force.
Ryssland påstås förbereda en massiv missilattack mot Ukraina från Belarus - med luftvärnsrobotar. Signaturen "dr Cassandra Nojdh" har tidigare nämnt en sådan attack som ett möjligt "svar" på attacken mot den ryska flygbasen Saky på den ockuperade halvön Krym.

För inte så länge sedan inträffade några mystiska explosioner i Belarus:

Large Scorch Mark At Belarus Base After Mysterious Explosions (Updated)
The War Zone skrev:The mysterious late-night blasts at Ziabrovka Airbase in Belarus came just hours after a major attack on a Russian airbase in Crimea.
Något verkar i alla fall vara på gång på den belarusiska militära flygbasen i Homels voblasts.

Russia’s New S-350 Air Defense System Appears At Base Near Ukraine Border
The War Zone skrev:Russia’s much-vaunted new S-350 Vityaz ground-based air defense system has made what seems to be its first appearance in the war in Ukraine, with evidence of deployment at an airbase less than 40 miles from the Ukrainian border. Introducing this medium-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) system to this particular facility is interesting, suggesting broader Russian concerns that Ukraine is increasingly in a position to attack bases beyond its borders. This would make some sense following the high-profile attack on Russia’s Saki Air Base in southern Crimea, as well as previous clandestine operations.
Samtidigt förstärker Ryssland gränsen med sitt nyaste luftvärnsrobotsystem. Uppenbarligen behövs en förstärkning efter den senaste veckans incidenter...
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dr Cassandra Nojdh
Inlägg: 5903
Blev medlem: måndag 26 januari 2015 12:05

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av dr Cassandra Nojdh »

Enceladus skrev: onsdag 17 augusti 2022 7:32 Putin’s Next Miscalculation: Russia’s Readiness for a Long War
Jamestown skrev:Germany remains the main target of Russian gas pressure and political maneuvering, but Putin’s understanding of this major European power is badly out of date, as Berlin’s resolve to stand with Ukraine against cruel aggression has been seriously underestimated in Moscow (Kommersant FM, August 11). Russian diplomacy aims at weakening this resolve by feigning readiness for peace talks and had expected the grain deal negotiated by Turkey to restore the Kremlin’s trustworthiness, but provocations at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant produce far more convincing evidence to the contrary (Svoboda.org, August 12).

[...]

Publication of official statistics has been severely curtailed, but one bit of data that was observed last week covered the large expansion of the state budget deficit caused by a sharp decline in income, even from the oil-and-gas sector, and a massive increase in state expenditures, clearly caused by the war, which have been duly hidden (Rbc.ru, August 12; Bfm.ru, August 12).

[...]

Time, however, is not on the Russian premier’s side, and Ukraine is set to prove it, despite the terrible price it pays for resisting and rolling back Russian aggression.
Ryssland tycks inte vara redo för ett långvarigt krig. Nu gäller det för Europa att ha is i magen och för Ukraina att härda ut. Europas gasreserver passerade nyligen 75 procent, väsentligt tidigare än planerat. Segern är inom räckhåll.

Russia’s Repeat Failures: Moscow’s New Strategy in Ukraine Is Just as Bad as the Old One
Foreign Affairs skrev:The Ukrainian and Russian militaries are entering a critical period in the weeks and months ahead, although for different reasons. In some areas, Ukrainian forces are outgunned, outranged, and in critical need of ammunition and certain weapons—thanks in part to Russia’s efforts to disable Ukraine’s defense industry. But in the near term, Ukraine may have a more sustainable position. The country has sufficient personnel, Western support, and a strong will to fight. Russia, meanwhile, has experienced troop and material losses that will be difficult to overcome.

[...]

Russian military planners closely study whether their forces are combat effective, including by looking at attrition rates (also known as “critical loss” in Russian military science). For Russian ground forces, military planners projected before the war that a unit becomes ineffective when it loses 50 to 60 percent of its original strength. They estimate that a regional command-and-control network is permanently broken when 40 percent of its equipment is destroyed. They believe that an air force squadron can no longer operate when it loses 70 percent of its aircraft. If Ukraine can create a highly contested frontline—just as it did outside Kyiv and Kharkiv—with attacks on command-and-control points, high rates of equipment losses, and large Russian casualties, it may again convince Moscow to withdraw.
Putin har ingen chans att vinna ett utnötningskrig mot världshistoriens starkaste militärallians, oavsett hur många pariastater Ryssland har på sin sida.
Problemet är väl närmast att ingen part har råd med ett utnötningskrig. Precis som överstelöjtnant Paasikivi och jag så anser Michel Kofman att det måste hända någonting ganska snart om Ukraina ska kunna fortsätta kriget: Die Ukrainer werden von den Europäern wahrscheinlich auf Munitionsdiät gesetzt/Ukrainarna kommer förmodligen att sättas på ammunitionsdiet av européerna
Experten Michael Kofman tror att Kiev vill visa framgång snabbt för att säkra ytterligare stöd från väst. Men vad skulle det kunna betyda om Ukraina misslyckades i en motoffensiv i söder?
Hittills har inte Uklraina åstadkommit särskilt mycket på det strategiska planet. Hur man än pumpar upp sig själv med glada och trosvissa paroller så kvarstår tyvärr det faktum att man ingenting vet om framtiden.
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Användarens profilbild
dr Cassandra Nojdh
Inlägg: 5903
Blev medlem: måndag 26 januari 2015 12:05

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av dr Cassandra Nojdh »

Enceladus skrev: onsdag 17 augusti 2022 7:51 War in Ukraine Has Sparked a New Race to Succeed Putin
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace skrev:Former president, ex-prime minister, and deputy chair of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev has been particularly busy making statements. His over-the-top, hardline comments on foreign policy issues and insults hurled at Western leaders often look comical, but the role he’s trying to play is clear. It blends tough isolationism with populism, firmly placing the blame for internal woes on the shoulders of external enemies.

[...]

Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, both regarded as contenders for Putin’s succession prior to the war, have been notably tight-lipped about the “special operation” in Ukraine. Sobyanin toed the line by appearing at a rally in support of it at Moscow’s Luzhniki stadium in March, and traveled to the LNR in June, but he has yet to be spotted in army fatigues or to call for Nazism to be crushed. Mishustin, meanwhile, has avoided the subject of the war entirely.

The rational explanation for their silence is that war is a temporary affair, and relations with the West and even with Ukraine will, at some point and somehow, have to be restored. When that time comes, those who haven’t insulted “hostile countries” or directly participated in the military campaign will be better placed to go about that.

[...]

The two strategies—loud gestures and resounding silence—reflect the different approaches and assumptions of those who use them. The hawks operate on the basis that the successor will be chosen by Putin, so they mimic his behavior in their attempts to win his favor, indicating that they will preserve his legacy loyally. “After Putin there will be Putin,” Volodin once said.
Den ryska eliten börjar förbereda sig för ett Ryssland med någon annan vid makten. Två tydliga fraktioner har bildats. Det återstår att se vilken som får makten.

Den amerikanska tankesmedjan har publicerat en annan artikel på samma tema:

Has War Made Putin a Burden for Russia’s Elites?
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace skrev:That doesn’t yet mean that the foundations for a hypothetical coup are forming within the Russian elite, or that anyone from Putin’s entourage will be prepared to make a stand against the president. The chances of that happening are extremely low, because those same feelings of futility and despondency go hand in hand with a state of political paralysis: even if someone has their own interests and an alternative view of the situation (whether in favor of peace or more warlike), they remain politically impotent because any mechanisms for taking political action have been destroyed.

The Russian elite is atomized. Every individual is frightened for their future, and lives in permanent fear of being denounced. Putin’s function as an arbitrator is diminishing, but he remains the only “guarantor of stability”—even though any stability is long gone—purely because no other mechanisms for resolving inter-elite conflicts in Russia have emerged.

The siloviki, or security services, fear revenge by the liberals; the technocrats fear a tidal wave of repression; and big business fears the re-Sovietization of the economy. Many people still believe that only Putin can protect them from those risks. His value in this respect is not even as a physical figure, but as a selection of ideologies that make it possible to stitch the system into something whole, avoiding social unrest or ruinous internal divides.

[...]

And yet the degradation of Putin’s political leadership means that the Russian elite will have to change. The president’s misjudgment of the risks to Russian industry, banking, and energy, and incompetence in financial and economic affairs multiplied by a lack of trust in those around him and in experts will lead to belated and unsound decisions.
Budskapet är i stort sett detsamma. Den ryska eliten behöver förbereda sig för ett Ryssland utan Putin vid makten.
Oerhört mycket kremlologi här. De här spekulationerna säger egentligen bara att vi inte vet någonting om hur det rör sig i maktkretsarna i Kreml, egentligen mindre än under sovjettiden. Det enda som är intressant är konstaterandet "even if someone has their own interests and an alternative view of the situation (whether in favor of peace or more warlike), they remain politically impotent because any mechanisms for taking political action have been destroyed".

Det är helt korrekt. Sovjet var en partidiktatur och det fanns (åtminstone efter Stalin) en struktur som gjorde att ledaren inte var allsmäktig, vilket Breznjev m.fl. utnyttjade när Nikita Sergejevitj Chrusjtjov störtades från makten 1964. Under augustikuppen 1991 var dessa strukturer så försvagade att kuppmännen i SUKP inte fick med sig de väpnade styrkorna. Idag finns inga strukturer eller mekanismer alls kvar, maktpartiet "Enade Ryssland" är bara en kuliss.
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
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Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus skrev: onsdag 17 augusti 2022 8:16
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: tisdag 16 augusti 2022 19:46 Det är ju omöjligt att avgöra vad dessa attacker representerar. Att Ukraina - i förekommande fall - skulle använd amerikanska UAV-er (Switchblade) anser jag vara uteslutet. Men kommersiellt tillgängliga UAV-er har ju bevisligen adapterats som vapen tidigare. Små UAV-er (ofta, men inte alltid av helikoptertyp) kan inte bära någon större last varför det oftast verkar som om de bär någon form av antipersonellt (splitter) vapen. Större UAV-er kan naturligtvis bara tyngre laster. Sådana UAV-er är ofta av fixed-wing-typ: https://www.aeroexpo.online/aeronautic- ... v-520.html

PS. Switchblade-UAV-erna (300 och 600, som Ukraina bevisligen fått) är i första hand antipansar-vapen. Typ 300 har en stridsladdning motsvarande en 40 mm granat, medan den större typ 600 i princip har samma stridsladdning som pansarvärnsmissilen Javelin.
Ukraina har även fått den mystiska drönaren Phoenix Ghost av USA. Polen har också levererat kamikazedrönaren Warmate, vilken har används tidigare. Vidare har Polen - till skillnad från USA - förmodligen inget emot att "provocera Putin" på rysk mark...
Ja, vad UAV-en "Phoenix Ghost" egentligen representerar är omgivet av så mycket mystik att jag avsiktligt valt att utelämna den. Vapensystemet tillskrivs, som framgår i en av referenserna ovan, mängder av sinsemellan motstridiga egenskaper.

Warmate verkar har ungefär samma prestanda och egenskaper som Switchblade. Vapentekniskt är den intressant i och med att den har utbytbara stridsladdningar, även om jag tvivlar på att man kan åstadkomma särskilt mycket med en termobarisk stridsladdning på något kilo (som jämförelse har den ryska missilen MO.1.01.04M, som väger drygt 200 kg, en termobarisk stridsladdning som uppgår till 2/3 av missilens vikt).


Under alla förhållanden är dessa vapensystem korthållsvapen och i första hand avsedda att angripa fientliga fordon och personal, knappast strategiska mål. Räckvidden sätter också tydliga begränsningar.

Påståendena om bombtillsatser på kommersiella (helikopter)-UAV-er är intressanta. Problemet är bara att kommersiella drönare har begränsad autonomi och dessutom är känsliga för mikrovågsvapen.viewtopic.php?p=407864#p407864
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
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Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus skrev: onsdag 17 augusti 2022 8:39 Ukraine Situation Report: Bridge Busting Campaign Persists In Kherson
The War Zone skrev:The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also confirms the latest attack has now left all three bridges leading into the Kherson region inoperable. This achievement could give Ukrainian forces the upper hand in their revitalized counteroffensive nearby.

[...]

This reality has made it so that Russian forces have had to rely on a number of pontoon ferries to transport personnel, equipment, and civilians across the Dnieper River in an attempt to maintain the flow of supplies.
Slutligen några nya bilder på broarna i Cherson-området. Den ryska militärledningen har som bekant redan lämnat det sjunkande skeppet, men tiotusentals soldater och mycket utrustning är kvar - förmodligen för gott. :?
Allt detta kommer från ukrainska eller Ukraina-vänliga källor, och påståendena däri måste värderas med största försiktighet. Om man vill tillämpa kritiskt tänkande förstås, och inte bara ställa sig i propagandakören.

På tal om "svar" för angreppen så kräver Putins bandhund, oligarken Andrej Alexandrovitj Klishas "hämnd" (det gör han alltid) för dessa angrepp mot "det heliga Krim": https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/08/16 ... a-news-war
New York Times skrev:Some pro-Kremlin commentators called on Russia’s military to make good on the threats to respond harshly to attacks on Crimea. Andrei Klishas, a senior lawmaker from Mr. Putin’s United Russia party, said in a social media post that “Russia’s retaliatory strikes must be very convincing.”

“This is about protecting our sovereignty,” he wrote.
Frågan är om Putin ser något behov av en mer spektakulär attack, eller om det räcker med mer av samma som tidigare. Här är ett CBS-reportage om de fortsatta angreppen på Mykolaijev-området: Inside the villages suffering Russia's retaliation as Ukraine counterstrikes with U.S. heavy weapons.
Den ryska eldkraften är ingalunda bruten.
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
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Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus skrev: onsdag 17 augusti 2022 9:23 Russian Military Reported is Preparing for a Massive Missile Attack from Belarus
International Military skrev:An independent military intelligence group says Russia is gathering anti-aircraft missile systems in Belarus in preparation for what it says is a large-scale attack on Ukraine.

[...]

Belarusian Hajun said in his post that Ziabrovka airfield contains 10 to 14 S-400 Triumph and two Pantsir air defense systems, as well as three KASTA-2E2 and 48Y6 Podlyot radars. In addition, it is said that the airfield is used to store at least 15 to 60 missiles for the Triumph defense system, with more expected to be delivered by the Russian Air Force.
Ryssland påstås förbereda en massiv missilattack mot Ukraina från Belarus - med luftvärnsrobotar. Signaturen "dr Cassandra Nojdh" har tidigare nämnt en sådan attack som ett möjligt "svar" på attacken mot den ryska flygbasen Saky på den ockuperade halvön Krym.
Sajten www.international-military.com ska man nog se upp med. Innehållsmässigt verkar den vara påfallande Putin-vänlig!

Sajten är helt anonym - endast en gmail-adress uppges som kontakt och som författare till alla artiklar uppges ett enda namn, "Frank Johnson"
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Enceladus
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Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Uppgifter: Tyskland skjuter upp nedstängningen av kärnkraftverk
Di skrev:Tyskland planerar att skjuta upp nedstängningen av landets tre sista kärnkraftverk för att avvärja hotet om energibrist i vinter, i spåren av de minskade ryska leveranserna av naturgas. Det rapporterar Wall Street Journal med hänvisning till anonyma tjänstemän inom den tyska regeringen.

[...]

”Reaktorerna är säkra fram till den 31 december, och uppenbarligen kommer de att förbli säkra även efter den 31 december”, säger en hög tjänsteman till Wall Street Journal.
Uppgifterna från de anonyma tjänstemännen måste naturligtvis tas med en nypa salt, men det kan inte förnekas att det pågår en intensiv debatt om Tysklands energipolitik.

De flesta tycks vara överens om att kärnkraft är ett bättre alternativ än rysk gas, men kärnkraft är inte heller oproblematisk ur ett självständighetsperspektiv:

The Rosatom Exemption: How Russia's State-Run Nuclear Giant Has Escaped Sanctions
RFE/RL skrev:"One of the reasons for that is certainly the heavy reliance on uranium and nuclear fuel as most of the 32 countries that use nuclear power rely on Russia for some part of their nuclear fuel supply chain," Ananyeva told RFE/RL.

[...]

"Out of 13 EU countries that operate nuclear power plants, only three -- Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Hungary -- are using solely Russian fuel for all their nuclear power production," energy policy analyst Ananyeva explained.

"Two other countries -- Finland and Czechia -- successfully diversified fuel supplies by using fuel produced by Westinghouse, so Ukraine is not the only country leading by example in this case."
Som bekant avbröt Finland för några månader sedan samarbetet med det ryska företaget Rosatom om ett nytt kärnkraftverk på halvön Hanhikivi i Norra Österbotten. Vidare ska amerikanska Westinghouse bli Ukrainas enda leverantör av kärnbränsle. Avsaknaden av sanktioner mot ryskt uran förbryllar dock:
Rosa-Luxemburg-Stiftung skrev:How would sanctions against uranium hit Russia and have an influence on the ongoing war?

There are three points one needs to know: first, Rosatom takes an active part in the war in Ukraine. Its employees accompanied Russian troops when they occupied the Chernobyl nuclear plant. Then they took control over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, the largest in Europe. Second, Rosatom employees are in charge of the nuclear weapons Vladimir Putin is threatening other countries with.

And third?

Rosatom is one of the main “geo-political” instruments that the Russian president has to make other countries dependent on Russian nuclear fuel and services. When Rosatom builds new nuclear reactors in some developing country, it creates a dependence on Russia for over a century.
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9734
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Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Crimean Bridge Closed For Civilians For Transferring Military Equipment From RF To Peninsula
Ukranews skrev:The occupiers blocked the Crimean Bridge to transfer equipment from the Russian Federation to the peninsula, as well as to stop the mass flight of people from Crimea. This was announced on Wednesday, August 17, by the member of the Kherson Regional Council, Serhii Khlan, on the air of the telethon.
Börjar ockupanterna få panik? Som sagt, det kanske inte är den bästa idén att åka på semester till ett land som befinner sig i krig. :shock:

Allas vår favorit-MÖP uttalar sig om attackerna på den ockuperade halvön:
Thomas C. Theiner skrev:Kyle is correct. You don't announce an "SF raid" mere hours after an event, while the SF team is still in the area.

You announce an "SF raid" so soon after an event if you want your adversary to waste resources on searching for a non-existing SF team.
Ukraina bedriver ett informationskrig, och Ryssland verkar ha nappat på betet:
Dr. Ian Garner skrev:Russia media giving up the “cigarettes blow up ammo dumps” line and now publishing videos of the forces arresting Ukrainian “terrorists” for the attacks.
Den ryska videon påminner mer om en komedi. :roll:

Att Ryssland har låga tankar om sina egna bekräftas av följande:

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 16
ISW skrev:Chechen units are reportedly relocating to Kherson Oblast to police Russian military deserters.
Ledningen har redan lämnat det sjunkande skeppet, men tiotusentals ryska soldater tvingas stanna kvar.

Vidare har Jomini gjort en ny statusuppdatering på Twitter:
Jomini of the West skrev:5/ Donetsk Oblast OD. Perhaps the most significant change to occurred in the Ukrainian TVD in the past 30-days has been in the Donetsk OD. The Ukrainians are making the most of the SVRF redeployment to southern Ukraine to retake lost territory in the Izyum area.

[...]

13/ The ZSU counteroffensive in the south will not be initiated by grand maneuvers, it will more likely resemble the actions taken against the 2d GCAA and 41st CAA in the Sumy & Chernihiv Oblast during the early days of the war, but this time at scale.

14/ Ukrainian actions/activity in the Zaporizhzhia & Odesa-Kherson ODs are shaping conditions to conduct a counteroffensive in the most vulnerable VSRF Operational Direction to decisively seize the strategic initiative away from the Russians & throughout the fall & winter.
Tongångarna är mycket positivare denna gång! Var det inte någon som hävdade att Donbas är förlorat för några månader sedan? :roll:
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Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus skrev: onsdag 17 augusti 2022 15:44 Vidare har Jomini gjort en ny statusuppdatering på Twitter:
Jomini of the West skrev:5/ Donetsk Oblast OD. Perhaps the most significant change to occurred in the Ukrainian TVD in the past 30-days has been in the Donetsk OD. The Ukrainians are making the most of the SVRF redeployment to southern Ukraine to retake lost territory in the Izyum area.

[...]

13/ The ZSU counteroffensive in the south will not be initiated by grand maneuvers, it will more likely resemble the actions taken against the 2d GCAA and 41st CAA in the Sumy & Chernihiv Oblast during the early days of the war, but this time at scale.

14/ Ukrainian actions/activity in the Zaporizhzhia & Odesa-Kherson ODs are shaping conditions to conduct a counteroffensive in the most vulnerable VSRF Operational Direction to decisively seize the strategic initiative away from the Russians & throughout the fall & winter.
Tongångarna är mycket positivare denna gång! Var det inte någon som hävdade att Donbas är förlorat för några månader sedan? :roll:
Visst. En anonym twittrare är ju en oerhört pålitlig källa. Speciellt vederbörandes gissningar.

Men lär er skillnaden mellan strategi och taktik, grabbar, om ni vill ha någon ordning i era tankegångar.
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Enceladus
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Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Hoping for a political settlement in Ukraine? Stop.
POLITICO skrev:There’s currently no sign either party seeks a deal, and that isn’t going to change anytime soon.

[...]

This all lies in stark contrast with recent history. Over the past 200 years, wars have only lasted slightly more than three months on average — we are already well past that mark. And unsurprisingly, there have been calls for Russia and Ukraine to start talks.

[...]

And while these gains have, indeed, come at a high cost in Russian casualties and destroyed equipment, President Vladimir Putin doesn’t believe he’s losing the war. To the contrary, he boasts that Russia hasn’t even begun to fight and that his “special military operation” will assuredly succeed.

[...]

Moreover, Russian troops aren’t fighting to defend their homeland, whereas Ukrainians believe they have no choice but to fight, as their country’s very survival hangs in the balance. A June poll revealed that 89 percent of them opposed surrendering any territory to obtain a cease-fire, and that two-thirds were convinced the Ukrainian army would eventually evict Russia from all the areas it has occupied since the invasion.
Allt tyder på att kriget i Ukraina blir utdraget - och ett av de blodigaste i modern tid:

The war in Ukraine is on track to be among modern history’s bloodiest
The Washington Post skrev:The top 25 percent of wars, in terms of intensity, witness just over 200 battlefield deaths per day, according to the project’s data. The Russia-Ukraine war already passes that threshold, even using conservative estimates of fatalities.

[...]

The top 25 percent of wars, the Correlates of War Project shows, last 13 months or more. Military experts increasingly predict that this war is on course to last that long. And given that both sides have already been involved in low-intensity conflict since 2015 in eastern Ukraine, it is not hard to see it reaching the three-year mark, which only 10 percent of wars have achieved.
Även hos Pentagon är tongångarna positivare:

Rockets, Drones & Maybe Western Fighter Jets? Pentagon $1Billion in Weapons to Ukraine, Preps for Long War
Warrior Maven skrev:This development would seem to indicate that US and allied supporters of Ukraine are perhaps more inclined to think Ukraine might ultimately prevail in stopping or even destroying Russian advances. Clearly Ukrainian air defenses seem to be having an impact, as well as whatever fighting is going on in the air. Also, if Russia is still unable to achieve air superiority, something which could completely change the tactical situation on the ground, is it even considerable to envision a scenario wherein Ukraine is able to take control of the skies if fortified by large numbers of fighter jets? It seems, given Kahl’s comments, there may be some emerging thinking along these lines, if not at very least a growing consensus that Ukraine may succeed in continuing to shut down Russian air attacks.
Vidare påstås attacken mot flygbasen Saky på den ockuperade halvön inte vara någon engångshändelse:

Ukraine aiming to create chaos within Russian forces, Zelenskiy adviser says
The Guardian skrev:Ukraine is engaged in a counteroffensive aimed at creating “chaos within Russian forces” by striking at the invaders’ supply lines deep into occupied territories, according to a key adviser to the president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

[...]

“I certainly agree with the Russian ministry for defence, which is predicting more incidents of this kind in the next two, three months. I think we might see more of those happening,” Podolyak said.

He also signalled that Ukraine regards the Crimean Bridge linking the occupied peninsula with the Russian mainland as a legitimate military target. “It’s an illegal construction and the main gateway to supply the Russian army in Crimea. Such objects should be destroyed,” he said.
Inte undra på att ockupanterna bevakar bron...
Enceladus
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Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Nu verkar även Pakistan ge sig in i leken, givetvis på Ukrainas sida:

Britain’s RAF flights transporting ammunition from Pakistan to Ukraine?
Hindustan Times skrev:Britain’s Royal Air Force has been running near-daily flights with a C-17 Globemaster heavy lift aircraft from Romania to an airbase in the Pakistani garrison city of Rawalpindi since early this month, data from flight tracking websites have shown.
Pakistan står på randen till konkurs och bara en av sidorna kan rädda landet från att sluta som Sri Lanka. Vidare har den av Ryssland orsakade gaskrisen i Europa förvärrat situationen i Pakistan. Det brukar vara de fattigaste länderna som drabbas värst, och detta är inget undantag. Ännu ett ryskt självmål?

Slutligen kritiserar Navalnys team återigen avsaknaden av sanktioner mot Putins närmaste allierade:
Navalny skrev:5/28 How on earth is Alexei Miller, the head of Gazprom, Putin's main trusted thief since the 90s, the man who literally stole Gazprom and now sponsors Putin's family and mistresses, still not on the European sanctions list?

[...]

8/28 Moving on. The US sanctions do not include Abramovich, Putin's trusted wallet #2, who paid for the construction of the palace in Gelendzhik.
Putins inflytande i västvärlden är på intet sätt eliminerat, om än kraftigt försvagat.
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Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus skrev: onsdag 17 augusti 2022 16:34 Nu verkar även Pakistan ge sig in i leken, givetvis på Ukrainas sida:

Britain’s RAF flights transporting ammunition from Pakistan to Ukraine?
Hindustan Times skrev:Britain’s Royal Air Force has been running near-daily flights with a C-17 Globemaster heavy lift aircraft from Romania to an airbase in the Pakistani garrison city of Rawalpindi since early this month, data from flight tracking websites have shown.
Pakistan står på randen till konkurs och bara en av sidorna kan rädda landet från att sluta som Sri Lanka. Vidare har den av Ryssland orsakade gaskrisen i Europa förvärrat situationen i Pakistan. Det brukar vara de fattigaste länderna som drabbas värst, och detta är inget undantag. Ännu ett ryskt självmål?
Tja, pakistanierna skulle väl gärna köpa rysk gas om de hade pipelines därifrån. Nu ligger det ju en massa tråkiga och dumma länder emellan. Pakistan har ju egna gasfyndigheter, men de räcker uppenbarligen inte eftersom man importerar mer och mer LNG: Pakistan’s dependence on natural gas is turning into a nightmare (artikeln skriven redan i september förra året). Och inte blir det bättre när fälten stänger ner för årligt underhåll: Oil, gas production drops on fields’ shutdown.

Så det är klart att man försöker sälja det enda man har: vapen! USA betalar. Åtminstone är det väl vad indierna tror (ovanstående bygger på en indisk källa).

USA har försökt hålla Pakistan under armarna i decennier, oavsett om det varit militärjuntor eller kraftlösa civila regeringar som styrt. Resultatet har väl inte blivit stort mycket bättre än i Afghanistan.
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
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Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

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Enceladus skrev: onsdag 17 augusti 2022 9:23 Russian Military Reported is Preparing for a Massive Missile Attack from Belarus
International Military skrev:An independent military intelligence group says Russia is gathering anti-aircraft missile systems in Belarus in preparation for what it says is a large-scale attack on Ukraine.

[...]

Belarusian Hajun said in his post that Ziabrovka airfield contains 10 to 14 S-400 Triumph and two Pantsir air defense systems, as well as three KASTA-2E2 and 48Y6 Podlyot radars. In addition, it is said that the airfield is used to store at least 15 to 60 missiles for the Triumph defense system, with more expected to be delivered by the Russian Air Force.
Ryssland påstås förbereda en massiv missilattack mot Ukraina från Belarus - med luftvärnsrobotar. Signaturen "dr Cassandra Nojdh" har tidigare nämnt en sådan attack som ett möjligt "svar" på attacken mot den ryska flygbasen Saky på den ockuperade halvön Krym.

Något verkar i alla fall vara på gång på den belarusiska militära flygbasen i Homels voblasts.

Russia’s New S-350 Air Defense System Appears At Base Near Ukraine Border
The War Zone skrev:Russia’s much-vaunted new S-350 Vityaz ground-based air defense system has made what seems to be its first appearance in the war in Ukraine, with evidence of deployment at an airbase less than 40 miles from the Ukrainian border. Introducing this medium-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) system to this particular facility is interesting, suggesting broader Russian concerns that Ukraine is increasingly in a position to attack bases beyond its borders. This would make some sense following the high-profile attack on Russia’s Saki Air Base in southern Crimea, as well as previous clandestine operations.
Samtidigt förstärker Ryssland gränsen med sitt nyaste luftvärnsrobotsystem. Uppenbarligen behövs en förstärkning efter den senaste veckans incidenter...
Ja, uppenbarligen försöker Putin dra in Vitryssland/Belarus djupare in i kriget.
Is Putin preparing to use Belarusian territory for another large-scale missile attack on Ukraine?
Inte ens idéer om nya anfallsoperationer förefaller vara omöjliga. Om de sedan går att genomföra är en annan sak.

Medan banditen Erdogan fortsätter att profitera på kriget:
Turkey moves closer to Russia, but is immune to Western sanctions
Så kommer turen till Soccomoro alias Jazzbacillen alias dr Cassandra Nöjdh alias Durkdrivna Doris etc. (ljudkonst av Lars-Gunnar Bodin): "Låt oss tala klarspråk och rinna ut i sanden".
Enceladus
Inlägg: 9734
Blev medlem: torsdag 29 juni 2017 18:23

Re: Inför Ryssarnas invasion (2022)

Inlägg av Enceladus »

Russians are realising Crimea is ‘not a place for them’, says Zelenskiy
The Guardian skrev:Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has said that panicking Russians have realised that Crimea is “not a place for them” after three mysterious and devastating strikes on the peninsula over the past week, thought to have been carried out by Ukrainian operatives.

In his latest video address Zelenskiy said long queues of cars streaming across the Crimea Bridge leading to the Russian mainland proved that the “absolute majority” of Russian citizens had got the message. At least 38,000 cars crossed on Tuesday – a record.

[...]

Zelenskiy hinted that similar inventive attacks could be expected. He urged Ukrainians living in Crimea and the occupied south to stay away from enemy command posts and logistics bases. “Do not approach the military objects of the Russian army,” he said.
Ockupanterna får panik efter att ha insett att de finner sig i en krigszon och att Russkiy mir faktiskt har gränser, till skillnad från vad Medvedev säger.
dr Cassandra Nojdh skrev: söndag 17 juli 2022 21:42 De som vill syna Medvedev räcker upp en hand!
Ukraine hints it was behind latest attack on Russian supply lines in Crimea
The Guardian skrev:Ukraine has hinted it was behind a series of mysterious and devastating strikes in occupied Crimea that destroyed a key railway junction used for supplying Russian troops and a military airbase.

[...]

Several explosions on Tuesday appeared to have destroyed a Russian ammunition depot and an electricity substation about 125 miles (200km) from the frontline with Ukrainian forces.

According to Russian media, a further blast took place at a military airfield in the village of Hvardeyskye, not far from Crimea’s regional capital, Simferopol. Residents reported hearing loud explosions, Kommersant reported.
Jag ser många händer i luften!

Ukraine Strikes Again in Crimea, Posing a New Challenge for Putin
The New York Times skrev:President Vladimir V. Putin has made Russia’s seizure of the peninsula a centerpiece of his 22-year rule, but a series of clandestine attacks by Ukrainian forces recently have tested security there.

[...]

No single action that Mr. Putin has taken in his 22-year rule provoked as much pro-Kremlin euphoria among Russians as his largely bloodless annexation of Crimea, an action that cemented his image as a leader resurrecting Russia as a great power.

[...]

But Mr. Putin, who addressed a security conference in Moscow by video link on Tuesday a few hours after the early-morning blasts in Crimea, made no mention of the attack. He said Russia was prepared for a lengthy war, even if many more Ukrainians would die, repeating his frequent argument that a Western-allied Ukraine was an existential threat to Russia. The West, he claimed in his speech, was using Ukrainians as “cannon fodder” in its conflict with Russia.
Har Putin äntligen insett att han inte kan eskalera längre?
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